NFL Week 7 Spread Picks

leveon-bell

No Big Ben, but Pittsburgh still has their bell cow, Leveon.

– Jon Ramsey

Playoffs? You talking about playoffs? I can’t even have a winning week, and you want to talk about playoffs? Almost halfway through the season and time sure is flying by, can you believe that right now the Bills lead the NFL in point differential?  Or that the Panthers are 1-5 after going 15-1 last year?  I am sure we all had Matt Ryan leading the NFL in passing and Lorenzo Alexander leading the NFL in sacks.  All of these weird occurrences are what make sports great… and gambling on them even better!  Fueled by a lighter wallet, it is on to the picks.

London 9:30am

NY Giants at* Los Angeles (+3)odell-proposal

I like the Giants here, Rams must travel to London from Los Angeles after playing losing at Detroit last week, that is a ton of travel. While the Giants played at home and beat the Ravens. That’s got to be at least an 8 or 9 hour travel advantage for the Giants. P.S. Giants better be careful or else Beckham might marry a soccer net in England.

Sunday 1pm

Minnesota at Philadelphia (+3)

I like the Eagles, Minnesota is undefeated coming off of a bye, but has to go on the road for the first time in almost a month.  I think the Eagles defense can get some pressure on Bradford in his return to Philly and without Diggs it will be tough to score on a good Eagle defense.  Believe it or not, the Eagles offense averages per game more yards than the Vikings offense does and the Eagle defense allows less passing yardage per game than the Viking defense you hear so much about.

New Orleans at Kansas City (-6.5)

The Chiefs have alligator blood, they never seem to go away, but I also don’t think they can put teams away either. I think they were really helped by the weather conditions last week and they are going up against a Saints offense that still hasn’t stop scoring (with the exception of that weird NYG game) they average 31 points per game.  The spread is too big for a Chiefs team that will play things close to the vest and hope to squeak out a win at home.

Washington at Detroit (-1.5)

The Lions have won games by 4, 1, and 3. They have lost games by 1, 7, and 3. Sounds like the definition of a .500 team. After sounding like they were ready to bench Cousins, the Redskins have won 4 in a row… their only losses were vs the Steelers and the Cowboys.  Neither loss looks bad now as both have proven to be good football teams. Is it possible that the Redskins are good too? I think they might be, give me the Skins and the points.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-10) ***Best Bet***

hue-jackson

The Browns may be winless, but they’re no pushover under Hue Jackson. (credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

Cincinnati is not good enough to be favored by double digits vs anybody.  Hue Jackson will be returning to Cincy for the 1st time and is super familiar with the tricky Bengals offense, and especially Andy Dalton.  Kessler, surprisingly hasn’t been awful and Pryor is putting up yards and TDs on anyone.  I’ll take the Browns and to be honest, I think this a good chance at a longshot money line bet too.  This one is also my best bet… anytime I think a 10 point dog can win, then the points are a huge bonus.

Buffalo at Miami (+2.5)

No idea on if McCoy will play or not, but I don’t think the plan changes much if he does or doesn’t play.  This is going to be an ugly win for the Bills, I wouldn’t feel so good if the spread was 3, because this game feels like a 19-16 game, but because it is 2.5 I can go with Buffalo.  Tannehill struggles against the Bills, Miami’s defense is 31st in the league vs the run, and you know that the Bills will be fired up to go against Mario Williams. I guess if the Dolphins can run for 200 yards again they have a shot… but I can’t see that happening against a very stingy Bills run defense that is adding Shaq Lawson this week.  Give me the Bills and it is on to New England.

Oakland at Jacksonville (-1)

blake-bortles

Who is Blake Bortles, really? His box score stats and analytics tell different stories. (credit: USATSI)

Did you know that the Jaguars defense allows over 120 yards less per game than the Oakland defense does?  Also, if you look at the games they have played, Oakland is a couple of late game comebacks away from being 2-4.  To me, this is another one of those Vegas talking games… How can the 2-3 Jags be favored over the 4-2 Raiders that seem to score at will?  As usual in those situations I just listen to Vegas and ask questions later, and as you all know, Vegas is usually correct.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-3)

I feel so bad for Andrew the Giant Luck, the team around him is so awful.  They blew another game late last week allowing 14 points in the last 2:37 of the game to allow the Texans to tie the game and then losing it in OT.  While the Titans managed to hold on to their game vs the Browns.  You know the Titans are just going to try and run the ball down the Colts throat and their DL has had success vs the shaky Colts offensive line.  Luck is great, but man I just can’t pick him here when the team around him is so bad… and especially when going up against a physical division opponent.

Baltimore at NY Jets (-2)

Wait a second here… how are Geno Smith and the Jets favored over another team.  Geno is awful awful awful! This is clearly a Vegas talking game, nobody in their right mind thinks that the Jets can win this one.  No Decker, no Fitzpatrick, did I mention Geno is starting?  The Ravens offense outscores the Jets and the Ravens defense has allowed almost 50 less points than the Jets have.  Ughhhh I want to pick the Ravens so badly, but I will listen to Vegas and take the Jets, though I am utterly confused.

Sunday 4pm

San Diego at Atlanta (-6.5)

Phil Rivers has thrown for over 1600 yards, 12 TDs and only 3 INTs. Their 4 losses have been by 6, 4, 1, and 3. They fumbled a FG snap in Oakland, just plain fumbled the game away vs the Saints and gave up a 63 yard TD with 1 minute remaining to the Colts.  Is it possible that the Chargers have just had bad luck?  The only team the Falcons have held under 26 points was the Broncos starting Paxton Lynch, the Chargers will be putting up points here, plus it is a 4pm game, so, I think that 6.5 is just too many for the Falcons to lay.

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (+1)

Let’s get this out of the way, the 49ers are bad… but with Kaepernick they at least look a bit more dangerous.  He was awful as a passer, but still showed some running skill that will cause the Bucs problems.  Without Doug Martin, the Tampa Bay offense has been pretty bad and Vincent Jackson seems to have a fork sticking out of his back.  This is a weird game between 2 bad football teams, so when in doubt take the home underdog.

New England at Pittsburgh (+7.5)

Love the Steelers here.  There is no way that the Steelers should be getting over a TD at home vs anyone.  Yes, Big Ben is hurt, but Brown, Bell, Coates and the rest of the explosive Steelers offense is healthy and ready to go.  If this was in New England, would you expect the Patriots to be 13.5 favorites?  That sounds way too high, so that’s how you know that 7.5 at home is way too high too.  Do I think the Pats win, of course I do.  But, even if the Steelers are down by 2 scores they have huge garbage time scoring potential.  Give me the black and yellow.

Sunday Night Football

Seattle at Arizona (-2)

russell-wilson-calais-campbellI have a feeling this game is going to be quite the defensive slugfest (take the under). This is the same Seattle team that scored 3 vs the Rams and only 12 vs the Dolphins.  While the Cardinals have won 2 in a row… but is was against the Jets and 49ers. In other words, I am not sold on them yet either.  I think that Seattle is the better football team and Russell Wilson is getting healthier by the day.  The Cards have turned more to David Johnson as the year as gone on, but I think that Seattle’s D can slow him down enough. One last point, Carson Palmer just isn’t passing the eye test right now and if he doesn’t look right neither will the Cardinals offense.  I’ll take Seattle and the points.

Monday Night Football

Houston at Denver (-8.5)

Monday night football, Osweiler comes back to the team that didn’t want him and is getting 8.5 points. The Texans have to be the worst 4-2 team in the NFL right? 3 of their 4 wins have been vs the Bears, Titans and Colts.  They have yet to win a game by double digits and the last time they played a night game they were shutout vs the Patriots.  Quarterback is the most valuable position in sports, so anytime you see a team let a young one go, he can’t be very good. Elway chose Trevor Siemian over Osweiler and Elway might know a thing or two about QBs.  Kubiak should be back calling plays for Denver and that should be a big help.  8.5 points is a lot… but man I think that Houston kinda sucks, give me the Broncos.


Bills Games (3-3 YTD)

Best Bet (2-3-1 YTD)

Last Week (5-7-2)

YTD (36-53-2)


– Jon Ramsey (@YardsPerPass)jonramseyyardsperpass

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