NFL Spread Picks for Week 11

The ridiculous Ezekiel Elliott faces his latest test: Baltimore's top ranked rushing defense. (Getty Images)

The ridiculous Ezekiel Elliott faces his latest test: Baltimore’s top ranked rushing defense. (Getty Images)

– Jon Ramsey

Time for my week 11 picks, I had my bye week last week and come into late November well rested for a playoff run.  There are a couple “go against the public” picks this week that I really like, along with an easy blowout.  Consider this week’s column my gift to you, to make some money for all that shopping coming up.  On to the picks!

Sunday 1pm

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (+8)

The Steelers make the short trip to Cleveland to take on the winless Browns.  The public is all over the Steelers especially at a spread that is not double digits.  The Steelers are coming off of a tough loss at home to the Cowboys and now have a game that they are expected to win easily.  Sure sounds like a chance at a let-down to me.  I’ll take the Browns.

Baltimore at Dallas (-7)

The league’s best rushing offense hosts the league’s best rushing defense as the Ravens travel to Jerry-World to take on the Cowboys.  Romo has officially given up this team to the rookie and this should be a great relief to Dak.  No matter how much they say that it didn’t matter, the “Romo-cloud” had to have been hanging over the team.  How this affects the team coming off of a big week is an excellent question, I think that Prescott wants to show that he is not a mistake and I think the Cowboys win big.

Jacksonville at Detroit (-6.5)

Detroit by less that a TD at home vs the Jags? Easy pick for Detroit!  That is how I imagine the general public when seeing this line.  Bortles is pretty bad… but I think the Lions have a bit of “paper tiger” to them and as you know, I love to fade the public in these “obvious” games, so I am going to take the Jags here.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-2.5)

The Titans have put up at least 26 points in their last 6 games to it is not their offense that has been the problem for them. It has been their defense that has allowed 25, 35, 22, 34, and 26 points in their last 5 games, one of which included a loss to the Colts. Both of these teams need a win to stay within striking distance of the Texans in the awful AFC South. I think that Andy Luck finds a way, give me the Colts at home.  

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Shady McCoy will have to be the difference against a disappointing, but talented Bengals team. (Getty Images)

Shady McCoy will have to be the difference against a disappointing, but talented Bengals team. (Getty Images)

Bills coming off of their bye week travel to Cincy to play the Bengals who lost last week to the Giants on Monday night.  So, not only did the Bills have an extra week to prepare, they also are playing a team with one less day to prepare.  Advanced stats continue to say the Bills are one of the better teams in the league and they know they need to go on a run to have any shot of playoffs.  I think that the run starts here.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-7.5)

I really like the Bucs here, KC has been getting down early recently and has had to make some incredible comebacks to get wins and I think that they are due to have their luck run out.  If the Bucs can limit turnovers, I think that they can put up enough points to keep this game close.  Alex Smith hasn’t thrown for more than 300 yards since week 1 and hasn’t even broken 250 since week 4.  7.5 just seems like too much to me.

Chicago at NY Giants (-7.5)

I like the Giants here as they need to keep winning to keep up with the red-hot NFC East. The Bears don’t care about this season and are basically playing for next year, while the Giants are 6-3 despite having one of the worst turnover ratios in the league.  I can’t see the Bears D being able to turn over the Giants that easily and ODB seems energized after a tough start to the season.  Give me the GMen

Arizona at Minnesota (-2.5)

After being red hot to start the season, the Vikings have cooled off and have lost 4 straight games. While the Cardinals started off 1-3 and have been able to even their record at 4-4-1. I like the Cards here, I think that the league has gotten up to speed with the Vikings defense. Fitzgerald is a Minnesota kid and will be eager to have a big game.  Finally, teams have been able to hurt Arizona on the ground, but the Vikings cannot run the ball to save their lives… give me the Cards and the points.

Sunday 4pm

Miami at LA Rams (+2)

The red-hot Dolphins fly across the country to play the Rams in Jared Goff’s 1st NFL start.  The biggest question in this game will of course be the young QB, who couldn’t unseat Case Keenum even with Case Keenum playing awful.  Can Goff really be that bad?  Or was this strictly a case of a team bringing along their young QB slowly and easing him into everything.  I think that it was a little of both which doesn’t say much for the Rams chances.  I’ll take the fish as a road dog, amazing how a 4 game win streak changes your outlook on a team.  

New England at San Francisco (+11.5) *** best bet ***

I’d love to give you some theory about how the 49ers can keep it close or that it will be a sleepwalk game for the cross-country traveling Pats.  Nope, blowout city… business-like 20 point win for the Pats.  Especially after a loss on national TV. Mark it down… best bet too.

Philadelphia at Seattle (-6.5)

Philly’s biggest loss this year was at Washington and by only 7 points. Their defense has been able to keep them in every game this year and Ryan Matthews had quite the game last week vs a good Falcons team.  Seattle’s last 5 games have been vs Atlanta, Arizona, New Orleans, Buffalo and New England. Quite a tough stretch of 5 games and I think we will start to see that take some toll on the team.  I’ll take the Eagles at the points.

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay at Washington (-2.5)

Kirk Cousins could help further bury the Packers with a win this week. (Getty Images)

Kirk Cousins could help further bury the Packers with a win this week. (Getty Images)

I really like the Redskins here, they started off slowly, but have really picked it up and are looking like a playoff team.  While the Packers have been so-so all year and are 4-5 only due to the fact that they have one of the best QBs in football suiting up for them every week.  The Redskins are a legit football team and GB’s wins have come vs the Bears, Giants, Lions, and Jags.  With the Jags being their only road win.  Not looking good for the Pack and at less than a FG, I’ll take the Redskins.

Futbol de Lunes por la noche

Houston at Oakland (-5.5)

It is Monday Night Football in Mexico City, which will make this game fun and also unpredictable.  Unlike the London games there isn’t a huge time change or 8 hour flight.  But there is altitude. Mexico City is 7500 feet above sea level, that is 2000 feet higher than Denver and will for sure impact this game.  To me, I would think that is an advantage for the offense, and Oakland’s offense is far superior to the Houston offense.  Therefore I’m going to go with Derek Carr and El Raiders.

jonramseyyardsperpass– Jon Ramsey (@YardsPerPass)

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