– John Bandinelli
Here we are, week 12 marks the three quarter mark of the season and it feels like it’s flying by. I hope everyone had a nice Holiday and enjoyed all the games on Thursday. I have another set of what I think are great picks for your lineups this week. With 12 games on the slate there are some matchups I really like this week and some value to be had if you’re willing to take a risk or two.
Tom Brady (NE) – $7800
The red Q next to Brady’s name this week shouldn’t mean much going up against the Jets. His mobility looks good according to practice reports. What is likely to happen is the picky DFS players will stay away from him and we could end up with some low ownership for a premium QB against a Jets team that is really struggling this year. Tom is the most expensive QB on this slate so if you’re willing to spend up I think he is a nice play. The Jets are better against the run that the pass so I expect New England to be throwing the ball.
Russell Wilson (SEA) – $6700
If you’re looking to pay less for similar production Wilson may be your guy this week although, I expect a lot of people to be playing him this week, so there won’t be much to differentiate you from the pack here. Tampa Bay has given up 10 passing TDs in the last 4 weeks. I’m expecting Russell to throw at least 2 in this one and maybe even take one in himself. Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin should stay busy as well.
Carson Palmer (ARI) – $5300
I like the idea of stacking Palmer with David Johnson this week since Palmer is so cheap. This way you pretty much guarantee yourself a piece of every TD Arizona scores this week. This game has the second highest Over/Under of the week at 51 with Atlanta being the 5.5 home favorite. Playing from behind could cause Palmer to throw more so stacking with Larry Fitzgerald is an option too.
LeSean McCoy (BUF) – $7300
Johnson and Ajayi are the obvious safe plays this week so I’m not going to list them here. Instead I’d like to persuade you to take a look at Shady McCoy. The Q next to name and the recent thumb surgery is going to scare people off of him, but he’s been seen at practice catching balls. So, this could be a risk/reward play if you’re the type to partake. Shady could have had a big week last week, let’s hope he doesn’t exit after the first half again.
Rashad Jennings (NYG) – $5600
Jennings has finally found his place in the Giant’s offense that is becoming more well-rounded and currently on a 5 game winning streak. Expect the streak to extend to 6, since the G-men are facing a winless Browns team. Cleveland has allowed 6 rushing TDs from running backs the past 4 weeks and 13 total on the season. Rashad has the backfield all to himself and is primed to have a great week.
Jeremy Hill (CIN) – $3900
With Gio Bernard out for the season Hill has the Bengals backfield all to himself. He has a tough matchup against a Ravens defense that held Ezekiel Elliot to just 16 fantasy points but gave up 33 to Chris Ivory in week 7. So, your guess is as good as mine this week but if he manages to get 15 fantasy points this week he’s definitely worth the investment.
Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) – $8800
It seems like I pick on Cleveland every week but it’s hard not to. The Browns don’t have anyone that can cover Odell this week and he’ll be looking to rebound after a poor showing last week. He’s averaging just under 10 targets and 6 catches a game. Statistically Beckham doesn’t play well on the road but again, this is the Browns we’re talking about. The way Odell can create yards after the catch is like very few others in the league and I don’t think the Browns will have an answer for him this week.
Doug Baldwin (SEA) – $6400
Tampa Bay has allowed 800+ receiving yards in the last 4 games, that’s high enough for the most in the league. I doubt we will see him throw another touchdown pass to Wilson this week but I guess it’s possible. Seattle appears to be getting better when it counts, the last quarter of the regular season. If Russell Wilson keeps playing well so will Baldwin. The Seattle QB/WR stack is very much in play this week.
Brandon LaFell (CIN) – $4600
Tyler Boyd (CIN) – $4000
You already know what this is about and I’m sorry if you had A.J. Green in any of your season long leagues, but he’s done for the season. I’ll have a little bit of both these guys this week but I’m far from having them in every single lineup. You could say I’m a bit skeptical for now. Boyd is up $1000 from last week and LaFell is up $600. I believe these prices came out before the game on Sunday so I would expect them to rise next week with the absence of Green. Get them while they’re cheap.
Jimmy Graham (SEA) – $5300
As you can tell I like Seattle a lot this week. Tampa has allowed 3 TDs in the past 4 games to the TE position. Graham is averaging just over 6 targets per game and almost 1 red zone target a game, with 3 TDs in the last 3 games, 2 of which were against Buffalo. Tampa is averaging 17.5 fantasy points to TEs in the last 4 games. The correlation between Russell Wilson’s play and his receivers playing well is apparent. Seattle is trending up and Tampa’s TE defense is trending down.
Will Tye (NYG) – $3000
I’m not sure what it is this week but Will Tye keeps fitting really well into a lot of my lineups. Tye’s production is moving in the right direction to have a good week against the Browns. 10 points from him this week would be sufficient for me anything more than that is a bonus. The starting role is his, let’s see what he can do with it.
Ben Koyack (JAX) – $2500
Koyack doesn’t have much to show for this season so far but has an opportunity to make an impact this week. Julius Thomas and Marcedes Lewis are both ruled out which leaves the TE duties to Koyack and Neal Sterling. The Bills have been sub-par against TEs this season.
Buffalo – $3800
Someone over a DraftKings must have read my article last week because the price for the Bills defense has jumped up $1100 this weekend. This is likely just matchup based adjustment but wow. If you can afford them I still like the Bills unit this week. Blake Bortles has thrown more interceptions than games played this season.
Carolina – $2600
If you want to go cheap on defense this week, consider the Panthers. Their young corners are improving and their defensive front is producing a ton of sacks this season. The away game matchup isn’t ideal considering the Raiders crowd, but if Carolina gets a lead Raiders Nation has been known to turn on the home team.
That concludes week 12, as always, feel free to tweet or comment. Questions, complaints, jokes etc. are all welcome. Good luck this week.
– John Bandinelli (@This_Dude_John)